鈥淲hat is driving the disconnect between the markets and real life?鈥� It was one of many questions posed to a panel of influential investment analysts and advisors at the third and final of the Carroll School webinars, Navigating Market Turbulence, held on Friday, June 12. The virtual event drew insights from Marc Seidner聽鈥�88, P鈥�24, PIMCO鈥檚 chief investment officer for non-traditional strategies, as well as Michelle A. Knight 鈥�98, M.S./M.B.A. 鈥�05, chief executive officer and chief economist at Ropes Wealth Advisors; and Robert LoBue, managing director and global head of fixed income syndicate desk at J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.
It proved to be an apt moment for the trio of investment experts to unpack that question, among other anomalies in the current market environment. Moderator Lindsay LoBue 鈥�96, advisory director at Goldman Sachs, kicked off the discussion by noting how, 鈥渏ust this week, we鈥檝e seen days where the market鈥檚 been down seven percent, then the market鈥檚 been up five percent.鈥澛�
Michelle A. Knight 鈥�98, M.S./M.B.A. 鈥�05, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Economist, Ropes Wealth Advisors
And yet, before the recent disruptions LoBue described, the stock market appeared on a remarkably speedy path to recovery since its low point on March 23. Knight admitted being 鈥渋n disbelief, watching markets rise鈥� since then, even as the U.S. economy remained largely shuttered and most Americans were still at home per state-mandated orders. 鈥淚 can understand people鈥檚 frustration with that disconnect,鈥� she said. Seidner remarked that, if you were not paying close attention since February, 鈥測ou鈥檇 think this is nothing really鈥攊t鈥檚 kind of a normal correction in some markets.鈥�
All three panelists credited the Federal Reserve鈥檚 swift actions for the market鈥檚 rapid rebounds. 鈥淲e pumped liquidity extraordinarily quickly into the system,鈥� said Robert LoBue, when asked how this crisis differs from 2009. 鈥淭hat, to me, helped to stem the tide. . . . While yes, [in 2009] the government was putting liquidity into place where the fires were, it took a little bit more time to get that liquidity through the system.鈥�
Their measured responses also alluded to an important caveat: Confidence in the Fed doesn鈥檛 fully diminish the challenges ahead. In a comment covered by , Seidner estimated that the U.S. economy will not return to pre-coronavirus levels until 2022. Seidner was likening the plunge to Disney鈥檚 Tower of Terror when he said, 鈥淭he economy took an elevator ride down. And it鈥檚 going to decide to climb the stairs on the way back up.鈥�
In other highlights from the markets webinar:
- Seidner questioned the notion of 鈥渢he new normal,鈥� suggesting we鈥檝e been 鈥渓ulled into complacency鈥� by a decade of historically low market volatility. 鈥淧erhaps we鈥檙e going back to some form of old, old normal, where we all have to manage through periods of radical uncertainty,鈥� he said, alluding to the turbulence that was characteristic of markets in the past.
- Knight explained聽why companies with strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies performed better聽in the economic downturn, calling it 鈥渁 tremendous moment for ESG investing.鈥澛燬eidner agreed, predicting greater emphasis on ESG initiatives as companies recover:聽鈥淎s we put surviving behind us and flourishing becomes part of the equation, how we flourish鈥攁nd how we flourish in a better, more sustainable, equal way鈥攊s almost certainly going to be a cornerstone of the discussion.鈥�
- In addition to the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19, Robert LoBue emphasized the added uncertainty of the upcoming political elections. 鈥淚 would pay attention to how hard the two parties fight for the Presidency and the Senate,鈥� LoBue said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e gonna fight like heck for those seats. . . . What they do and what they say will have a pretty profound impact on the globe, and the markets will react.鈥�